Monthly Archives: May 2012
Real GDP Revised Down
Real GDP was revised down from an initial read of 2.2% to 1.9% in the first quarter of 2012. The biggest downside revisions occurred in the public sector, as what were initially reported as gains in the state and local sectors are now reported as losses. This throws some cold water on the view that [...]
ADP Continues to Disappoint
The ADP report on private sector employment increased by 133,000 jobs in May, well below market expectations. Losses affected both the manufacturing and construction sectors, which had been stronger earlier in the year. The fall in construction may reflect a giveback from unusually mild winter weather. The manufacturing sector has slowed now that inventories have [...]
Case-Shiller Home Price Index Bottoming
The S&P Case-Shiller Index fell by 2% in the first quarter to its lowest level since the start of the housing market bust. There are signs of a bottom, however, with some of the hardest hit cities, such as Phoenix and Las Vegas, beginning to show signs of firming.
Business Orders Continue to Disappoint
Durable goods orders increased at a modest 0.2% pace in April, after declining sharply in March. The auto and civilian aircraft sectors were the only bright spots, and even there the results are mixed. A record number of new aircrafts will be delivered this year, but vehicle production and deliveries are still well below previous [...]
New Home Sales Rebound in April
New home sales rebounded to a 343,000 unit, annualized rate in April after declining in March. That is still a small fraction of the more than 2 million units sold at the peak of the boom. Structural problems in both the supply of credit and the capacity to build new homes will constrain the rebound [...]
Home Sales & Prices Firm in April
Existing home sales rose 3.4% to a still-suppressed, 4.62 million-unit rate in April after being revised down for the previous month. The gains were broad-based across regions, but the strongest gains occurred in the Northeast and the West. Even the worst-hit parts of California appear to be firming a bit, with one realtor in the [...]
Shocking Drive-by on the Census Bureau
The word “data” may be one of the most boring four-letter words in the English language, but it is also one of the most important. Data on the U.S. economy provide a flashlight to guide us through an increasingly dense forest of economic information. Without it, we are walking in the dark. Many Americans may [...]
A Run on Greek Banks
A run on Greek banks is currently going on. According to a statement by the Greek president and confirmed by the central bank in Athens, depositors withdrew nearly $900 million from bank deposits on Monday. Data are not yet available on outflows for Tuesday and today, but the European Central Bank (ECB) announced measures that [...]
Industrial Production and Housing Starts Improve
Industrial production rose by a stronger-than-expected 1.1% in April, with most components of the index showing gains. In particular, durable consumer goods turned in a good performance, while automotive products, in particular, increased 2.4% for the month. Production of business equipment rose 1.5%, offering hope that we may soon see acceleration in the lackluster pace [...]
Inflation and Retail Sales Cool with More Seasonal Weather
The consumer price index was unchanged in April, as energy prices at the pump came down during the month. Prices excluding food and energy edged up 0.2%, mostly on higher new and, most notably, used vehicle prices. Indeed, the average age of cars is getting so old that we are hitting a turning point where [...]
Bloomberg asks Diane Swonk to explain Fed concern over unemployment
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