The ADP report on private sector employment rose by 176,000 jobs in June and was revised up modestly for the month of May to 136,000 jobs. The services sector accounted for the bulk of the gains with 160,000 new jobs. The increases in construction and manufacturing jobs reversed declines from last month, but remained small. The increase in manufacturing jobs was only 4,000, which is consistent with the tepid manufacturing reports we saw in June. Small and mid-sized businesses continued to drive employment gains. Large employers added very little to their payrolls.
Bottom Line: The ADP report suggests that we will do better than the miserable initial report of 69,000 jobs in May. That threshold, however, is not hard to cross. This combined with other reports suggests we at least cracked 100,000 in the government report for June. It seems prudent to keep the estimates at the low end of the range. The forecast is now looking for a rise in total payroll employment of 125,000, and a gain of 140,000 in private sector payroll employment. The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 8.2%.