Monthly Archives: August 2012
Home Sales Regain Modest Ground, Prices Overstate Gains
Existing home sales rose slightly, to a 4.47 million unit rate in July, after falling in June. Sales rebounded in all regions but the West, where the inventory of affordable homes has fallen. Sales remain at a subdued pace, however, given the record level of affordability and low rates. Indeed, mortgage purchase applications picked up [...]
Housing Start Fall, but Permits Rise
Housing starts fell a little more than one percent to 746,000 in July, after figures for June were revised down. The decline in starts occurred in single-family housing starts. Multi-family starts for large rental properties actually increased at a double-digit rate during the month. The problem is that the biggest bang for the dollar on [...]
Autos Drive July Production Gains
Industrial production jumped 0.6% from June to July, buoyed by a 1.9% jump (double-digit, year-over-year) in vehicle production. There are many concerns about whether those gains can be sustained, however, as some producers skipped their usual two-week July closings to retool plants, which distorted the seasonal adjustment of the data. A similar distortion occurred in [...]
CPI Cools, Manufacturing Moderates
The consumer price index was (CPI) was unchanged in July, coming in much lower than expected, dragged down mostly by energy prices. Unfortunately, those declines will be temporary, as prices at the pump have risen recently. Most food prices, particularly at the grocery store, have yet to show the impact of the drought. Low- and [...]
Retails Sales Worse than Headline Suggests; Producer Prices a Little Hot
Retail sales rebounded at a 0.8% pace in July after being revised down to a 0.7% decline in June, which leaves the consumer essentially treading water over the two months combined. Moreover, May retail sales were also in the red, so we had a lot to recoup after the spring swoon. Gains in July were [...]
Consumer Credit Expands for 10th Month in a Row
In June, total consumer credit expanded by $6.5 billion. Growth was led by the non-revolving sector, which posted a $10.2 billion gain, while the revolving sector contracted by $3.7 billion. This time, however, the big news is not in the headlines. Since the end of the recession in June 2009, one subcomponent of non-revolving credit [...]
Trade Deficit Narrows on Weaker Imports
The U.S. trade deficit narrowed to $42.9 billion in June, down from $48 billion in May, on significantly weaker imports. The drop in imports was widespread, reflecting declines in industrial supplies and materials, capital goods and consumer goods (appliances and electronics). The only increase in imports was in autos, parts and engines. This matched the [...]
Employment Surprises to Upside; Unemployment Disappoints
Payroll employment jumped 163,000 in July, well above the consensus of 95,000. Private sector job growth was even more robust, rising 172,000 during the month. Some of the gain may be attributed to the fact that the auto makers didn’t close their plants for retooling as they usually do in July. Other gains, however, were [...]
ECB: German Tactical Victory, but Allegiances Shift
When the widely anticipated decision by the European Central Bank (ECB) to step in and actively purchase government bonds to relieve stress on sovereign debt markets failed to materialize earlier today, market participants were left scratching their heads about what went wrong. On the surface, today’s decision by the ECB to stand pat (no additional [...]
ECB Stumbles in Policy Execution
The European Central Bank (ECB) promises action to stem upward pressure on debt yields in peripheral countries but leaves much to the imagination on how policy would be executed. The head of the ECB, Mario Draghi, laid out a firm commitment to do more to ease the upward pressure on bond yields in Europe’s Southern [...]
Bloomberg asks Diane Swonk to explain Fed concern over unemployment
RSS Feeds