Category Archives: David Nice

Key Factors in New Home Sales Weakness

As discussed in this morning’s Economic Alert by Chief Economist Diane Swonk, new home sales continue to lag expectations. June’s estimate came in 69,000 units under the consensus estimate. The lackluster recovery in new home sales should be cause for concern, in terms of the housing recovery and for the overall economy. There are many [...]

Unemployment Claims Trending Lower

Initial unemployment claims dropped 20,000 to a level of 331,000 for the week of February 1. Claims have been trending down from a recent high of 380,000 reached in the week of December 14. The latest move down is a positive sign for Friday’s jobs report, which will provide January data. We expect a stronger [...]

Home Sales Lose Steam in December

Existing-home sales at the end of the year were lackluster; on the national level, sales increased 1.0% in December. Regionally, sales activity picked up in the South and West, but fell in the Midwest and Northeast. Cash purchasers and individual investors still comprised a large proportion of overall sales, 32% and 21%, respectively. These numbers [...]

Home Sales Disappoint

Existing home sales fell 4.3 percent in November compared to October, coming in well below consensus estimates. The drop in sales was also 1.2% below last November’s rate, marking the first year-over-year drop in 29 months, according to the National Association of Realtors, which collects that data. Although the volume of sales declined, prices continued [...]

The Trend Continues…

Total consumer credit grew by $13.6 billion in August.  The increase is attributable to growth in the nonrevolving credit sector, more specifically student loans backed by the federal government.  August marks yet another month in a long stretch when credit growth is driven almost solely by government student loan growth.  In line with this trend, [...]

Jobless Claims for the week ended August 24, 2013

Initial jobless claims ticked back down this past week to 331,000.  The four-week moving average remained flat at 331,000  as well.  

Impact of Rising Mortgage Rates 1-2-3

The rapid rise in mortgage interest rates (See chart 1: Rates for 30-year Mortgages.) over the past 6 months has had a direct and profound impact on housing affordability (See chart 2:Housing Affordability.).  That, coupled with the large premiums that are currently being paid for new homes (See chart 3: New Home Premium.) compared to [...]

Unemployment Claims

Weekly unemployment claims ticked up slightly during the week ending August 17th, but the-four week moving average remains on a downward trajectory. States reporting the highest number of initial jobless claims included South Carolina, New York and Oregon.

Consumer Credit Continues to Shine in March, but all the Glitters is not Gold

In March total consumer credit outstanding posted its 19th consecutive month of growth. Total Credit expanded by $8.0 bil., comprised of a $9.7 bil. expansion in nonrevolving and a contraction of $1.7 bil. in revolving credit (see chart below). On the surface this data appears promising:

Weekly Unemployment Claims 5/11/2013

Weekly unemployment claims moved back above the 350,000 threshold to 360,000 during the week of May 11. Read more