Category Archives: Fed Flash

Consumers Power Ahead; Businesses Disappoint

Consumers jumped on discounts and credit to leverage their incomes in November, with spending slightly outpacing solid, inflation-adjusted, disposable income gains during the month. Spending on big-ticket vehicles and holiday gifts both bounced back

CPI Firms Year-on-Year

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) flattened out the during the last two months as falling prices at the gas pump pulled down the overall index once again. However, we are finally starting to see some firming on a year-over-year basis with the CPI edging up 0.5% from a year ago. The reason is that we [...]

Employment Gains Cinch Liftoff

Payroll employment jumped 211,000 in November and was revised up significantly for October and September. Gains were broad-based. The only major exceptions were mining, which continues to be hammered by low oil prices, and manufacturing, hit by the strong dollar and overhang of inventories. The good news is that the economy is more than absorbing [...]

Fed Ready to Raise Rates: Decision not Unanimous

The minutes to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)’s October meeting revealed the ongoing debate over the timing of the first rate hike and concerns about communications. The majority of members was either ready to move or believed that they would be able to move in December. There was significant pushback by two members

Listen for Dissonance or Harmony from the Fed

The key question when the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s October meeting are released today will be how far Chair Janet Yellen’s legendary gift of persuasion worked, particularly within her inner circle.

Inflation Offers Fed Confidence

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% in October compared to one month ago and one year ago. Core (nonfood and nonenergy) inflation also rose 0.2% as the drag from energy prices abated and the push from medical care services intensified.

Producer Prices Drop

Producer prices unexpectedly fell 0.4% in October as services inflation fell well short of expectations for the second straight month. Another sharp drop in inflation in the services sector,

Catch-up in October Employment Seals the Deal

Payroll employment surged by 271,000 in October, reversing the weakness we saw over the summer. Moreover, gains were broad-based in everything from professional services, which include entry-level workers, to construction, retail, food services and hospitals.

Will Dissonance at the Fed Persist?

Key speeches by Federal Reserve officials are scheduled this week. Some are more important than others. Fed Chair Janet Yellen and Fed Governor Lael Brainard speak on regulatory issues Wednesday. On the surface, these speeches are expected to be benign. The Q&A, however, could be more interesting.

Inflation and Wages Still Muted

Personal income and outlays both rose an inflation-adjusted 0.2% in September. Falling prices at the gas pump continued to buoy spending. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, which more accurately measures inflation than the consumer price index (CPI), fell by 0.1%.