Category Archives: Fed Flash

Moderate Rebound in Employment

Payroll employment rebounded by 223,000 in April after being revised down for the month of March. The snapback was in places one would expect, such as construction and teachers at the state and local levels.

Q1 GDP to Show Hit from Trade Deficit

The trade deficit widened dramatically in March as containers that had been stockpiled during labor disputes at West Coast ports were finally unloaded and made room for new shipments. Indeed, almost all of the increase in imports came from Asia,

Loss of “Patience” Offset by Caution

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted unanimously to drop “patience” with regard to its stance on short-term interest rates. The loss of the word “patience” from the statement was more than offset by a surprise in the FOMC’s verbiage that raising rates at the next meeting in April “remains unlikely.” That is in addition [...]

Industrial Production Disappoints

Industrial production edged up a negligible 0.1% in February, carried almost entirely by gains in utilities. Colder than usual temperatures across the country in February boosted utility usage, particularly in places that typically see more temperate conditions, in the South and West. Texas and Virginia were hit particularly hard by cold winter weather and storms [...]

Employment Remains Buoyant: Participation Up

Payroll employment jumped a more-than-expected 257,000 in January, despite more than the usual number of heavy snow days across the nation.  (Yes, economists watch the weather too.) More importantly, benchmark revisions were released with strong upward revisions to November and December, underscoring the upward shift in economic momentum that we saw at the end of [...]

A Statement for Everyone

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted unanimously to do nothing and signal nothing at the January meeting. The committee upgraded its assessment of the economy to reflect what was most likely a strong end to 2014. That said, members also acknowledged that wage growth, inflation and the housing market remain cooler than they would [...]

Generating Jobs Not Wage Gains

Payroll employment rose by 252,000 in December after being revised up to a whopping 353,000 for the month of November. Private sector payrolls grew a smaller, but still decent, 240,000.

Fed Statement Evolves but Policy Unchanged

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) erred on the side of caution by keeping the phrase “considerable time” in the statement, but not using it to describe policy moves going forward. Instead, members said they would be “patient” in raising rates. The change in verbiage is a bit of a bait-and-switch as the FOMC preps [...]

November Surge In Employment

Payroll employment jumped 321,000 in November and was revised up by 44,000 for the previous two months, bringing the last three-month average up to 278,000. Gains were broad-based, with particularly good gains in the business services sector (outside of temporary hires) where full-time, high paying jobs reside. This sector was among those hardest hit by [...]

Fed Offers Reassurance After Ending QE

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted  today to end the large-scale asset purchase program  (also known as “quantitative easing,” or QE). FOMC members stated that they will maintain the size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet at the current $4.4 trillion level by replacing mortgage-backed securities and maturing Treasury bonds until the Fed starts [...]