Tag Archives: autos

Retail Sales Better than Headline Indicates

Retail sales rose what appeared to be a tepid 0.1% in October but, as the debates have revealed, appearances can often be deceiving. Vehicle sales remained unusually strong after an already robust September, which dampened month-to-month gains, while gasoline station sales continued to fall on lower prices at the pump. Core retail sales, which exclude [...]

Construction Gains Solid, Only in Key Sectors

Construction spending rose 0.6% in September, a little more than expected. Gains in multifamily construction in particular continued to substantially outpace gains in the single-family market. We also saw solid gains at auto dealers, which is not surprising given the recent surge in sales,

Industrial Production Drops

Industrial production fell a larger-than-expected 0.4% in August after a strong upward revision to July. The volatility in the number was caused by changes in vehicle production, which have proven difficult to capture on a seasonally adjusted basis. Plants that were previously shuttered during July were up and running; that is borrowing from the usual [...]

Employment Report: August is a Quirky Month

Payroll employment is expected to rise a slightly tepid 175,000 in August after averaging more than 240,000 for the previous twelve months. Private employment is expected to increase by 170,000. We expect the unemployment rate to hold at 5.3%. The slowdown in employment growth is mostly cosmetic and reflective of the statistical agencies’ inability to [...]

Consumers Go Car Shopping

Personal disposable incomes rose 0.4% after adjusting for inflation in the month of July, faster than consumer spending, which edged up 0.3% during the month. The bulk of the rebound in consumer spending, which came on the heels of a slight upward revision to June, occurred in vehicle purchases. Consumers have been reluctant to spread [...]

Incomes Solid, Outlays Moderate

Personal disposable incomes rose 0.2% in the month of June after adjusting for inflation. The inflation-adjusted data on Personal Consumer Expenditures (PCE) were essentially flat. The numbers were not as bad as they appeared

Aircraft Orders Buoy Durable Goods

Durable goods orders rose 3.4% in June after contracting a more-than-previously-reported 2.1% in May. A 66% surge in the highly volatile aircraft sector accounted for much of the gain.

Dismal Durable Goods Orders

Durable goods orders fell 1.8% in May and were revised down for the month of April. Much of the drop was driven by a sharp drop in aircraft orders, which are extremely volatile. The remainder, however, was a disappointment. The vehicle sector, which had been one of the bright spots for factory orders, flatlined in [...]

Consumers Emerge From Cave

Retail sales jumped 1.2% in May from April as hibernating consumers emerged from their caves. Vehicle sales fueled overall gains but were not as strong as we expected, given the near-record, 17.8 million-unit, annualized pace we saw for the month. Incentives were sweetened to drain dealer inventories. Some of the gains we saw also likely [...]

Primer for May Employment Data

We are expecting nonfarm payrolls to rise by 205,000 in May, a little less than consensus. The private sector is expected to account for 200,000 of those gains, with state and local governments adding 5,000 jobs, mostly in education. The quality of new jobs for the month, however, is expected to improve as the demand [...]