Tag Archives: consumer

Inflation Offers Fed Confidence

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% in October compared to one month ago and one year ago. Core (nonfood and nonenergy) inflation also rose 0.2% as the drag from energy prices abated and the push from medical care services intensified.

Retail Sales Better than Headline Indicates

Retail sales rose what appeared to be a tepid 0.1% in October but, as the debates have revealed, appearances can often be deceiving. Vehicle sales remained unusually strong after an already robust September, which dampened month-to-month gains, while gasoline station sales continued to fall on lower prices at the pump. Core retail sales, which exclude [...]

Summer Swoon Transitory

Real GDP growth slipped to a 1.5% pace in the third quarter after averaging nearly 4% in the second quarter. A sharp drawdown in inventories and a widening trade deficit accounted for the bulk of that weakness.

Inflation Chill in October

The consumer price index fell 0.2. % in September in response to falling prices at the gas pump and aggressive incentives on light vehicles.

Implications of a Rate Hike for Consumers

The real issue when the Federal Reserve raises interest rates for the first time is not as much an issue of magnitude for consumers. The intended first rate hike will be small in size; it will not represent a do-or-die scenario for consumers. The Fed’s own estimates suggest that the first increase could easily come [...]

Growth in 2Q Revised Much Higher

The economy expanded at a revised 3.7% pace in the second quarter, almost 1.5% stronger than initial estimates for the period. The changes were driven by a strong upward revision to business investment. Commercial construction activity was particularly strong, while the contraction in equipment spending is now significantly less than initially reported.

Inflation Remains Cool

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose a slightly less-than-expected 0.1% in July, with weakness in energy, vehicle and airfares offsetting continued increases in shelter costs. Prescription drug costs also continue to rise,

Incomes Solid, Outlays Moderate

Personal disposable incomes rose 0.2% in the month of June after adjusting for inflation. The inflation-adjusted data on Personal Consumer Expenditures (PCE) were essentially flat. The numbers were not as bad as they appeared

Revisions Smooth Path of Growth

The overall economy expanded at a 2.3% pace in the second quarter after rising at an upwardly revised 0.6% pace in the first quarter. Benchmark revisions, which incorporate new data and attempt to deal with the first quarter seasonal problems, helped to smooth the path of growth in recent years.

Multifamily Market Hot: Inflation Tepid

Housing starts rebounded to a 1.174 million-unit pace in June, while the decline for May was slightly less than initially reported. Gains were concentrated in the multi-family market as builders are still rushing to meet what they see as a permanent shift by millennials to move to urban centers and delay marriage and having children; [...]