Tag Archives: consumer

CPI Runs Hotter than PCE Inflation Index

The Federal Reserve prefers to use the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index of inflation because PCE is more accurate; it better captures the trade-offs that consumers make when prices shift across sectors in the economy. The chart below is proof of the positive effect of plummeting oil prices in surging consumer sentiment. Low prices at at the [...]

Consumer Price Inflation Falls

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropped 0.4% in December, the largest drop since 2008, in large part due to plummeting oil prices. Energy prices outside of the oil and gasoline sectors, however, posted mostly increases, which look to be transitory and will retreat as we move into January. Prices for food moved higher and, outside [...]

Falling Oil Prices Reduce Trade Deficit

The trade deficit narrowed more than expected again in November, with imports dropping more than exports. A fall in oil imports, due to the sharp drop in energy prices we have seen in recent months, was the primary reason for weakening imports. Exports were hurt by a drop in aircraft shipments,

Personal Incomes and Outlays, Home Prices Strong

Personal Incomes and Outlays Personal income and expenditures both gained in November, with incomes growing 0.4% and expenditures up 0.6% after both were revised up in October. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index decreased 0.2%, while core PCE increased less than 0.1%. That price movement bodes well for consumers this holiday season as shoppers [...]

Cheer and Chill in November Data

Real GDP was revised up to a whopping 5.0% rate of growth in the third quarter from a 3.9% estimate previously, The revision is unusually large for a third cut of the data. Moreover, revisions were up for all the right reasons, notably stronger domestic demand. We also saw an even stronger surge

CPI Slips on Falling Oil Prices

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.3% in November, pushed down by the largest drop in prices at the pump since the height of the financial crisis in December of 2008. The CPI rose a negligible 1.3% from a year ago, once again driven down by low gas prices. Food prices rose 0.2% during the [...]

Industrial Production Rebounds

Industrial production rebounded 1.3% in the month of November and was revised up for the month of October, when weakness in the mining and utilities sector took a toll on overall gains. Upward revisions were made back to June, which helps explain some of the buildup in inventories that we saw in the third quarter. [...]

Santa Wore Deep Pockets in November

Retail sales surged 0.7% in November and were revised up for the month of October, which has become an important indicator for the holiday shopping season.

There Is More to a Flat CPI than Flat Prices

The index for consumer prices (CPI) was flat in October but 1.7% higher compared to one year ago. On the surface, today’s data suggest that inflationary pressures remain contained. Prices seem to have found a bottom, which may ease some of the worries about deflationary trends that have circulated in recent months; at the very [...]

Small Decline in Industrial Production Does not Derail Recovery

Industrial production slipped by 0.1% in October, mostly because of declines in mining and utilities output. After the strong gains in September, today’s decline does not come as a complete surprise because many expected a temporary payback; it is a partial disappointment. Compared to one year ago, manufacturing output grew by a solid 3.7%, a [...]