Tag Archives: consumer

Surge in Aircraft Mask Underlying Weakness in Orders

Durable goods orders surged more than 20% in July to the highest level since 1992. Much of that rise, however, was due to a surge in new aircraft orders for Boeing; those have long lag times (up to five years to completion) and can be cancelled if economic conditions change. The remainder of the increases [...]

CPI Treads Water in July

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) edged up 0.1% in July from June, with widespread declines in energy prices offsetting a larger-than-expected uptick in food prices. Grocers and restaurants raised prices, attempting to tap into the discretionary spending that lower prices at the pump will hopefully bring. So far, however, increases in food prices have proven [...]

Autos Drive Gains in IP

Industrial production rose 0.4% in July, supported by outsize gains in vehicle production.  Many plants were running in July when retooling typically occurs to either catch up on losses from interruptions during the winter months or ramp up for an expanded number of new model introductions. Unusually harsh winter weather also accelerated the pace at [...]

Growth Rebounds

Real GDP growth rose a more-than-expected 4% in the second quarter, after falling a less-than-previously reported 2.1% in the first quarter. The forecast was for a 3% rebound in growth. Benchmark revisions, which include more complete data, helped to reduce the drop in the first quarter. Almost all of the “unexpected rise” in growth in [...]

Inflation Increases at the Gas Pump

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% in June, after rising 0.4% in May. Almost all of the increase (2/3) was driven by a sharp (3.3%) jump in prices at the gas pump. Food prices decelerated in June, after increases in previous months; prices at the grocery store were flat after some increase in recent [...]

Retail Sales Better then Headline Suggests

Retail sales rose a tepid 0.2% in June, but were revised up for the month of May. That is the second month in a row that sales were revised up; it means we are behind the curve on a much-needed catch-up in consumer spending following the winter doldrums. Vehicle sales tumbled,

Inflation up, Housing down

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% in May, the largest increase since early 2013. The rise in food prices on the heels of a harsh winter, disruptions to the planting season and drought in the West pushed up the price of food at home by 0.7%, which was no surprise to anyone shopping at [...]

Income OK, Spending Disappoints

The personal income and spending data released today revealed a consumer that is still struggling to recover from the winter doldrums. Real disposable incomes, after adjusting for inflation, rose 0.2% in April, slightly slower than the pace of March, while consumer spending declined both before and after adjusting for inflation. Gains in incomes were extremely [...]

GDP Drop Expected to Reverse in Q2

Real GDP was revised down to show a 1% decline in the first quarter. Most of that drop was due to a larger-than-expected liquidation in inventories, which is good in that it leaves more room for a rebound in the second quarter. Manufacturing activity has already picked up on the heels of better weather.

Prices Rise on Higher Airfares, Gasoline Prices

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% in April, driven by outsize gains in gasoline prices (other energy prices dropped during the month), airfares and, to a lesser extent, new and used cars. Food prices also picked up as the effects of the drought out West and late start to the planting season in the [...]