Tag Archives: federal reserve

Inflation Still Too Low

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) edged up 0.1% in September, after falling slightly the month prior. Increases in food prices tempered the drag from plummeting energy prices. This raises issues for consumers at the grocery store, as they will likely divert some of the money they are saving at the pump to deal with higher [...]

Primer for October 29 FOMC Meeting

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is slated to wrap up the large-scale asset purchase program (aka “QE3”) on October 29 with as little fanfare as possible. Federal Reserve officials believe they have prepared financial markets for this change and, despite recent market volatility, can still end the current purchase program quietly. The statement at [...]

Young Workers Looking for Work as Older Workers Are Hired

Payroll employment jumped 248,000 in September. The three-month moving average suggests payroll gains of 220,000 per month, which is in line with gains over the last year. Today’s data validate our view that the initial weak report for August was an anomaly.

Manufacturing Stays Strong for September

The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) flash reading held steady at 57.9 in September, marking the end of the strongest quarter since the survey began in 2007. Employment was particularly strong in this month’s report, which will help to provide an offset to the weakness we saw in August. An improvement in both domestic economic conditions [...]

Investor Interest in Housing Wanes

Existing homes sales slid to a 5.05 million unit pace in August and were revised down slightly to a 5.14 million unit rate in the month of July. Losses were concentrated in the West and South, where investors had been playing an outsized role in supporting sales. All cash buyers slipped to 23% of the [...]

Housing Starts Dip

Housing starts fell below the one million unit threshold again in August, but were revised up slightly for the month of July. Losses were heavily concentrated in the multifamily market, which has been on a tear. The largest losses in multifamily home construction were experienced in the West, where housing shortages are the most acute. [...]

Fed on Path to Slow Exit from QE

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to further reduce its asset purchases by $5 billion each, which brings its current purchases of mortgage-backed securities down to $5 billion per month and its purchases of Treasury bonds down to $10 billion per month. Chair Yellen also went out of her way to reemphasize that the [...]

Inflation Dips on Lower Gas Prices

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) edged 0.2% lower in August, largely on a drop in energy prices. Prices at the pump fell more than 4% alone. All of the savings at the pump is likely to be spent on food, where prices continued to rise during the month.

Industrial Production Slips in August

Industrial production fell 0.1% in the month of August, as vehicle production plummeted after an unseasonably strong July. Production figures for July were also revised down, which underscores how uneven gains remain in the manufacturing sector. Production for housing-related durables such as furniture, appliances and carpeting also fell after slightly,

Employment Shortfall is a Fluke

Payroll employment rose a marginal 142,000, well below the consensus for the month of August, with downward revisions on net to the two previous months. The weakest part of the data was a shortfall in retail employment, partly due to a strike on the East Coast. Manufacturing flatlined