Tag Archives: federal reserve

Consumers Make Trade-offs

Real disposable incomes rose 0.4% in October, slightly faster than September, while inflation-adjusted spending rose a tepid 0.1% during the month, weaker than September, which was actually revised down. The saving rate picked up, but something more than caution alone appears to be happening.

Fed Ready to Raise Rates: Decision not Unanimous

The minutes to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)’s October meeting revealed the ongoing debate over the timing of the first rate hike and concerns about communications. The majority of members was either ready to move or believed that they would be able to move in December. There was significant pushback by two members

Listen for Dissonance or Harmony from the Fed

The key question when the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s October meeting are released today will be how far Chair Janet Yellen’s legendary gift of persuasion worked, particularly within her inner circle.

Inflation Offers Fed Confidence

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% in October compared to one month ago and one year ago. Core (nonfood and nonenergy) inflation also rose 0.2% as the drag from energy prices abated and the push from medical care services intensified.

Producer Prices Drop

Producer prices unexpectedly fell 0.4% in October as services inflation fell well short of expectations for the second straight month. Another sharp drop in inflation in the services sector,

Catch-up in October Employment Seals the Deal

Payroll employment surged by 271,000 in October, reversing the weakness we saw over the summer. Moreover, gains were broad-based in everything from professional services, which include entry-level workers, to construction, retail, food services and hospitals.

Will Dissonance at the Fed Persist?

Key speeches by Federal Reserve officials are scheduled this week. Some are more important than others. Fed Chair Janet Yellen and Fed Governor Lael Brainard speak on regulatory issues Wednesday. On the surface, these speeches are expected to be benign. The Q&A, however, could be more interesting.

Primed for Disappointment?

Payroll employment is expected to rise by 165,000 in October, a little better than September but still well below the almost 200,000 per month average for the last year. Private payrolls are expected to rise by 150,000. Hiring for workers needed to assemble and deliver packages for the holiday season is expected to be a [...]

Construction Gains Solid, Only in Key Sectors

Construction spending rose 0.6% in September, a little more than expected. Gains in multifamily construction in particular continued to substantially outpace gains in the single-family market. We also saw solid gains at auto dealers, which is not surprising given the recent surge in sales,

Inflation and Wages Still Muted

Personal income and outlays both rose an inflation-adjusted 0.2% in September. Falling prices at the gas pump continued to buoy spending. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, which more accurately measures inflation than the consumer price index (CPI), fell by 0.1%.