Tag Archives: federal reserve

Could Grexit Delay Liftoff?

New York Federal Reserve Bank President William Dudley left September in play for liftoff in an interview with the Financial Times published on Sunday. His comments, however, were actually made on Friday, before Greece upped the ante further by punting the decision on reforms to a referendum after their next payment comes due at midnight [...]

New Home Sales Surge

New home sales accelerated to a 546,000-unit pace in May. This data not only beat expectations but also comes after a strong upward revision to April. Both the Northeast and West posted increases from April

Dismal Durable Goods Orders

Durable goods orders fell 1.8% in May and were revised down for the month of April. Much of the drop was driven by a sharp drop in aircraft orders, which are extremely volatile. The remainder, however, was a disappointment. The vehicle sector, which had been one of the bright spots for factory orders, flatlined in [...]

Home Sales Highest Since 2009

Existing home sales grew to 5.35 million on an annualized basis in May. That is the fastest pace of sales since November 2009 when sales were inflated by the temporary tax credit for first-time home buyers.

Prices Jump on Gas and Airfares

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% in May, driven by a sharp increase in prices at the pump. The overall index, however, remained unchanged from a year ago

Fed Insinuates More Than It Says

The Federal Reserve voted unanimously to do nothing at the June meeting. Fed Chair Janet Yellen went out of her way to talk a lot, but say as little as possible, at the press conference about when and if the Fed will get to liftoff in September. The real message, however, was not in what [...]

Industrial Production is Struggling

Industrial production declined 0.2% in May after falling more than initially reported in April. Revisions earlier in the year had been to the upside. Oil and gas extraction, in particular, did not collapse as rapidly as we thought. Overall production activity is about even with where we were in January, which isn’t exactly a sign [...]

Consumers Emerge From Cave

Retail sales jumped 1.2% in May from April as hibernating consumers emerged from their caves. Vehicle sales fueled overall gains but were not as strong as we expected, given the near-record, 17.8 million-unit, annualized pace we saw for the month. Incentives were sweetened to drain dealer inventories. Some of the gains we saw also likely [...]

Labor Market Shows New Signs of Healing

Payroll employment jumped by 280,000 in May, while employment was revised up, on net, for March and April. Gains were driven by large increases in professional business services, which include new graduates. Those gains were large in highly trained technology jobs, technology consultants and engineers. There were also increases in temporary hires, which can be [...]

Primer for May Employment Data

We are expecting nonfarm payrolls to rise by 205,000 in May, a little less than consensus. The private sector is expected to account for 200,000 of those gains, with state and local governments adding 5,000 jobs, mostly in education. The quality of new jobs for the month, however, is expected to improve as the demand [...]