Tag Archives: gas prices

Consumers Better but Durable Goods not So Good

Durable goods orders finally bounced back in October and rose 0.4% from September after two months of declines. Moreover, September losses are now smaller than initially reported. Gains were concentrated in defense aircraft and parts, reflecting the need to ramp up to deal with escalating tensions in the Middle East including the bombing of ISIS. [...]

Pleasant Upside Surprise for Third Quarter GDP

Real GDP in the third quarter was revised up to 3.9% from an initial estimate of 3.5%, a welcome upward surprise in growth. Moreover, most of the rise was due to positive factors, such as stronger-than-initially-estimated consumer spending and business investment. Exports were revised down, reflecting weakness abroad

Small Decline in Industrial Production Does not Derail Recovery

Industrial production slipped by 0.1% in October, mostly because of declines in mining and utilities output. After the strong gains in September, today’s decline does not come as a complete surprise because many expected a temporary payback; it is a partial disappointment. Compared to one year ago, manufacturing output grew by a solid 3.7%, a [...]

Consumers Deliver for Halloween

Retail sales rose 0.3% in October, slightly more than expected. U.S. consumers are spending some of the increased income that they are gaining from recent job growth, increased working hours and lower prices at the pump. Indeed, core retail sales, which exclude vehicle and gasoline sales, jumped 0.6% during the month with broad-based gains in [...]

Falling Oil Pushes Down Import Prices

Imports fell 1.3%, due mostly due to a sharp downdraft in energy prices. Energy prices alone fell 6.9% during the month. More worrisome is that import prices excluding oil were also down slightly and have been falling for several months. That reflects the disinflationary effect that a strong dollar is beginning to have on import [...]

Frightening Consumer Spending Data

Personal consumer outlays dropped 0.2% in September from August, reinforcing the negative read that the recent retail sales report provided for us. A shortfall in retail sales in September was one of the factors that triggered a selloff in the stock market earlier this month when traders feared that the U.S. consumer couldn’t play the [...]

Real GDP Holds Strong

Real GDP rose 3.5% in the third quarter after rebounding at a 4.6% pace in the second quarter. We have been trying to regain ground lost to unusually harsh winter weather in the first quarter of the year when real GDP declined by 2.1%. Most components of real GDP decelerated after the catch-up we saw [...]

Retail Sales Disappoint

Total retail sales slipped 0.3% in September after surging in August. A drop in vehicle sales from a post-recession high was one reason for the weakness. Core retail sales, which exclude the volatile vehicle and gasoline components, also dipped slightly during the month. That was despite a sharp drop in prices at the pump and [...]

Prices Rise on Higher Airfares, Gasoline Prices

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% in April, driven by outsize gains in gasoline prices (other energy prices dropped during the month), airfares and, to a lesser extent, new and used cars. Food prices also picked up as the effects of the drought out West and late start to the planting season in the [...]

CPI Rebounds from Winter Lull

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose  0.2% in March from February, well in-line with expectations and was up 1.5% from a year ago, a little hotter than we saw just a month ago. The portions of the country that escaped the polar vortex suffered a drought, which is pushing up feed prices. In response, prices [...]