Tag Archives: inflation

There Is More to a Flat CPI than Flat Prices

The index for consumer prices (CPI) was flat in October but 1.7% higher compared to one year ago. On the surface, today’s data suggest that inflationary pressures remain contained. Prices seem to have found a bottom, which may ease some of the worries about deflationary trends that have circulated in recent months; at the very [...]

Tipping Point for Wages

The employment cost index rose 0.7% in the third quarter, more than expected after rebounding from the doldrums in the second quarter. The index rose 2.3% from a year ago on the heels of slightly stronger wage growth; benefit costs for employers actually decelerated from a year ago.

Frightening Consumer Spending Data

Personal consumer outlays dropped 0.2% in September from August, reinforcing the negative read that the recent retail sales report provided for us. A shortfall in retail sales in September was one of the factors that triggered a selloff in the stock market earlier this month when traders feared that the U.S. consumer couldn’t play the [...]

Inflation Still Too Low

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) edged up 0.1% in September, after falling slightly the month prior. Increases in food prices tempered the drag from plummeting energy prices. This raises issues for consumers at the grocery store, as they will likely divert some of the money they are saving at the pump to deal with higher [...]

Primer for October 29 FOMC Meeting

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is slated to wrap up the large-scale asset purchase program (aka “QE3”) on October 29 with as little fanfare as possible. Federal Reserve officials believe they have prepared financial markets for this change and, despite recent market volatility, can still end the current purchase program quietly. The statement at [...]

Job Openings at 13-Year High

Job openings hit a 13-year high in August, while hiring slowed and the number of people quitting a job stabilized. This suggests one of several scenarios: 1) the workers applying for jobs are woefully under qualified; 2) new applicants cannot pass their drug tests; 3) employers are deliberately not filling open positions to increase flexibility [...]

Inflation Dips on Lower Gas Prices

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) edged 0.2% lower in August, largely on a drop in energy prices. Prices at the pump fell more than 4% alone. All of the savings at the pump is likely to be spent on food, where prices continued to rise during the month.

Spending and Incomes Flatline in July

Real disposable incomes increased by 0.1% in July after being revised up for the month of June.  The most weakness occurred in wages and salaries. Rental incomes increased, which is keeping investors in the housing market, particularly in the Midwest where foreclosures are still around for investors to flip to rent. Real expenditures were slightly [...]

CPI Treads Water in July

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) edged up 0.1% in July from June, with widespread declines in energy prices offsetting a larger-than-expected uptick in food prices. Grocers and restaurants raised prices, attempting to tap into the discretionary spending that lower prices at the pump will hopefully bring. So far, however, increases in food prices have proven [...]

Growth Rebounds

Real GDP growth rose a more-than-expected 4% in the second quarter, after falling a less-than-previously reported 2.1% in the first quarter. The forecast was for a 3% rebound in growth. Benchmark revisions, which include more complete data, helped to reduce the drop in the first quarter. Almost all of the “unexpected rise” in growth in [...]