Tag Archives: inflation

Consumers Make Trade-offs

Real disposable incomes rose 0.4% in October, slightly faster than September, while inflation-adjusted spending rose a tepid 0.1% during the month, weaker than September, which was actually revised down. The saving rate picked up, but something more than caution alone appears to be happening.

Inflation Offers Fed Confidence

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% in October compared to one month ago and one year ago. Core (nonfood and nonenergy) inflation also rose 0.2% as the drag from energy prices abated and the push from medical care services intensified.

Producer Prices Drop

Producer prices unexpectedly fell 0.4% in October as services inflation fell well short of expectations for the second straight month. Another sharp drop in inflation in the services sector,

Inflation and Wages Still Muted

Personal income and outlays both rose an inflation-adjusted 0.2% in September. Falling prices at the gas pump continued to buoy spending. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, which more accurately measures inflation than the consumer price index (CPI), fell by 0.1%.

Janet Yellen’s Punk Rock Moment

The Clash at the Fed: Watching the Federal Reserve and its communications regarding liftoff [the Fed’s term for exiting the zero bound on short-term interest rates] and initiating the first rate hike in nearly a decade is much like listening to the ambiguity in the 1981 song by the punk rock band The Clash. Should I [...]

Inflation Chill in October

The consumer price index fell 0.2. % in September in response to falling prices at the gas pump and aggressive incentives on light vehicles.

Minutes Point to Emerging Fed Consensus

As we expected, the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) September meeting show members are much more ready to move than the September statement suggested. The Fed’s balance sheet will be used to calibrate policy and will stay elevated for longer to cushion against external shocks after liftoff. There is a growing consensus [...]

FOMC Hedges Downside Risks

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) delayed liftoff today in response to concerns about growth abroad (read: China) and the likelihood that inflation will move lower before it moves higher. The central tendency of members in the meeting revealed their actual concerns (which provide the rationale for their decisions) that growth and inflation could both [...]

Inflation Still Tepid

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.1% in August on plummeting prices for airfares and at the gas pump. The month-to-month drop might have been even greater had the Midwest and Los Angeles not experienced refinery problems,

Slowdown in Employment is Misleading

Payroll employment rose 173,000, which is much lower than market expectations but well in line with our forecast. The August report is notoriously underreported and then later revised up. Private sector payroll employment increased by a much more modest 140,000. The slowdown was broad-based