Tag Archives: jobs

Moderate Rebound in Employment

Payroll employment rebounded by 223,000 in April after being revised down for the month of March. The snapback was in places one would expect, such as construction and teachers at the state and local levels.

Employment Expected to Pick Up

We expect payroll employment to rise by 220,000 in April after adding a negligible 120,000 in March. Private payrolls are forecast to account for 215,000 of those gains. Much, of course, will depend upon revisions, which we are hoping to be to the upside for March.

Disappointing March Employment Data

Payroll employment rose a disappointing 126,000 in March and was revised down fairly significantly for the previous two months. That suggests that the economy was actually weaker and less resilient at the start of the year than the data initially indicated.

A Primer on March Employment Data

We expect to see payroll employment rise by 235,000 in March, a bit of a moderation compared to the pace we saw at the start of the year. Hiring of teachers and other public sector workers is expected to add to those gains, but not dramatically. The private sector is expected to account for 228,000 [...]

Generating Jobs Not Wage Gains

Payroll employment rose by 252,000 in December after being revised up to a whopping 353,000 for the month of November. Private sector payrolls grew a smaller, but still decent, 240,000.

Payrolls Look Strong for December

Total payroll employment is expected to increase by 240,000 in December, with 235,000 gains in the private sector. Gains are expected to be broad-based; the exception may be retailers

A Primer on November Employment

We expect payroll employment to rise by 205,000 in November, slightly less than the 222,000 average monthly gain for the 12 months leading up to October. Private payroll employment is expected to drop below the 200,000 threshold to 195,000 for the month.

Manufacturing Data Mixed

The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) flash manufacturing index slowed in November with a worrisome shortfall in both new orders and actual manufacturing activity. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) index for manufacturing activity, however, held up somewhat better with gains in new orders and production offsetting some moderation in hiring.

Jobs Data Better than Headline Suggests

Payroll employment increased 214,000 in October with upward revisions for the previous months of 31,000. Moreover, we have seen upward revisions consistently, which means momentum is moving to the upside. Some of the largest gains occurred in low-wage food services and drinking establishments. Some of that increase in employment reflects a move by employers to [...]

Job Openings at 13-Year High

Job openings hit a 13-year high in August, while hiring slowed and the number of people quitting a job stabilized. This suggests one of several scenarios: 1) the workers applying for jobs are woefully under qualified; 2) new applicants cannot pass their drug tests; 3) employers are deliberately not filling open positions to increase flexibility [...]