Tag Archives: jobs

Disappointing March Employment Data

Payroll employment rose a disappointing 126,000 in March and was revised down fairly significantly for the previous two months. That suggests that the economy was actually weaker and less resilient at the start of the year than the data initially indicated.

A Primer on March Employment Data

We expect to see payroll employment rise by 235,000 in March, a bit of a moderation compared to the pace we saw at the start of the year. Hiring of teachers and other public sector workers is expected to add to those gains, but not dramatically. The private sector is expected to account for 228,000 [...]

Generating Jobs Not Wage Gains

Payroll employment rose by 252,000 in December after being revised up to a whopping 353,000 for the month of November. Private sector payrolls grew a smaller, but still decent, 240,000.

Payrolls Look Strong for December

Total payroll employment is expected to increase by 240,000 in December, with 235,000 gains in the private sector. Gains are expected to be broad-based; the exception may be retailers

A Primer on November Employment

We expect payroll employment to rise by 205,000 in November, slightly less than the 222,000 average monthly gain for the 12 months leading up to October. Private payroll employment is expected to drop below the 200,000 threshold to 195,000 for the month.

Manufacturing Data Mixed

The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) flash manufacturing index slowed in November with a worrisome shortfall in both new orders and actual manufacturing activity. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) index for manufacturing activity, however, held up somewhat better with gains in new orders and production offsetting some moderation in hiring.

Jobs Data Better than Headline Suggests

Payroll employment increased 214,000 in October with upward revisions for the previous months of 31,000. Moreover, we have seen upward revisions consistently, which means momentum is moving to the upside. Some of the largest gains occurred in low-wage food services and drinking establishments. Some of that increase in employment reflects a move by employers to [...]

Job Openings at 13-Year High

Job openings hit a 13-year high in August, while hiring slowed and the number of people quitting a job stabilized. This suggests one of several scenarios: 1) the workers applying for jobs are woefully under qualified; 2) new applicants cannot pass their drug tests; 3) employers are deliberately not filling open positions to increase flexibility [...]

Young Workers Looking for Work as Older Workers Are Hired

Payroll employment jumped 248,000 in September. The three-month moving average suggests payroll gains of 220,000 per month, which is in line with gains over the last year. Today’s data validate our view that the initial weak report for August was an anomaly.

Payroll Forecast: Upside Risk to September Employment Numbers

We are looking for nonfarm payrolls to increase by 235,000 for September after adding only 142,000 in August. We estimate private sector employment will expand by 225,000. Risks to our forecast are largely to the upside, given that unemployment claims have been trending lower and employment indicators for the manufacturing and service sectors are on [...]