Tag Archives: jobs

Job Openings at 13-Year High

Job openings hit a 13-year high in August, while hiring slowed and the number of people quitting a job stabilized. This suggests one of several scenarios: 1) the workers applying for jobs are woefully under qualified; 2) new applicants cannot pass their drug tests; 3) employers are deliberately not filling open positions to increase flexibility [...]

Young Workers Looking for Work as Older Workers Are Hired

Payroll employment jumped 248,000 in September. The three-month moving average suggests payroll gains of 220,000 per month, which is in line with gains over the last year. Today’s data validate our view that the initial weak report for August was an anomaly.

Payroll Forecast: Upside Risk to September Employment Numbers

We are looking for nonfarm payrolls to increase by 235,000 for September after adding only 142,000 in August. We estimate private sector employment will expand by 225,000. Risks to our forecast are largely to the upside, given that unemployment claims have been trending lower and employment indicators for the manufacturing and service sectors are on [...]

Manufacturing Stays Strong for September

The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) flash reading held steady at 57.9 in September, marking the end of the strongest quarter since the survey began in 2007. Employment was particularly strong in this month’s report, which will help to provide an offset to the weakness we saw in August. An improvement in both domestic economic conditions [...]

Construction and Manufacturing Surprise to Upside

Construction spending jumped 1.8% in July from June, much more than most expected. Gains were greater in the public sector than in the private sector, as highway and street construction picked up to some extent in response to an unusual volume of repairs that needed to be completed in response to last year’s harsh winter. [...]

GDP Q2 Revised to Upside

Real GDP was revised up 0.2% to 4.2% in the second quarter, a pleasant surprise as many had expected a downward revision. Increases were across the board but overall gains were still heavily dependent on a rise in inventories following a sharp drain

Broad-Based Losses in New Home Sales

New home sales fell from a 422,000 unit pace in June to a 412,000 unit pace in July; the data for June was revised up slightly, but the sales remain above levels hit a year ago. Losses in the month of July were broad-based with the exception of the South; the South is by far [...]

Yellen Defends Gradualism

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen has been succinct in her testimony to the Senate Banking Committee today. She emphasized that weakness in the first quarter was likely transitory, but still worse than anyone expected.  The Fed needs to be mindful on how much it can write off to weather problems. She also cited ongoing problems [...]

Employment Explodes for July 4th Holiday

Payroll employment jumped by 288,000 in the month of June, with upward revisions to both May and April. April now shows a rise of more than 300,000 as the economy continued to snap back from the winter doldrums.

GDP Drop Expected to Reverse in Q2

Real GDP was revised down to show a 1% decline in the first quarter. Most of that drop was due to a larger-than-expected liquidation in inventories, which is good in that it leaves more room for a rebound in the second quarter. Manufacturing activity has already picked up on the heels of better weather.