Tag Archives: jobs

Slowdown in Employment is Misleading

Payroll employment rose 173,000, which is much lower than market expectations but well in line with our forecast. The August report is notoriously underreported and then later revised up. Private sector payroll employment increased by a much more modest 140,000. The slowdown was broad-based

Employment Report: August is a Quirky Month

Payroll employment is expected to rise a slightly tepid 175,000 in August after averaging more than 240,000 for the previous twelve months. Private employment is expected to increase by 170,000. We expect the unemployment rate to hold at 5.3%. The slowdown in employment growth is mostly cosmetic and reflective of the statistical agencies’ inability to [...]

Solid Job Gains Keep Fed on Track for September

The economy added 215,000 jobs in the month of July while the unemployment rate held steady at 5.3%. The report, in line with expectations, shows overall a solid performance of the labor market, easing some early concerns that job creation may have suffered a summer lull.

Incomes Solid, Outlays Moderate

Personal disposable incomes rose 0.2% in the month of June after adjusting for inflation. The inflation-adjusted data on Personal Consumer Expenditures (PCE) were essentially flat. The numbers were not as bad as they appeared

Employment Holds Strong but…

Payroll employment jumped 223,000 in June, a little less than expectations but still well above the level needed to absorb anemic labor market growth. Moreover, business services continued to show strong gains in full-time as opposed to just temporary hires, which reflects an improving market for new college graduates. Health care also saw strong gains, [...]

Labor Market Shows New Signs of Healing

Payroll employment jumped by 280,000 in May, while employment was revised up, on net, for March and April. Gains were driven by large increases in professional business services, which include new graduates. Those gains were large in highly trained technology jobs, technology consultants and engineers. There were also increases in temporary hires, which can be [...]

Primer for May Employment Data

We are expecting nonfarm payrolls to rise by 205,000 in May, a little less than consensus. The private sector is expected to account for 200,000 of those gains, with state and local governments adding 5,000 jobs, mostly in education. The quality of new jobs for the month, however, is expected to improve as the demand [...]

Moderate Rebound in Employment

Payroll employment rebounded by 223,000 in April after being revised down for the month of March. The snapback was in places one would expect, such as construction and teachers at the state and local levels.

Employment Expected to Pick Up

We expect payroll employment to rise by 220,000 in April after adding a negligible 120,000 in March. Private payrolls are forecast to account for 215,000 of those gains. Much, of course, will depend upon revisions, which we are hoping to be to the upside for March.

Disappointing March Employment Data

Payroll employment rose a disappointing 126,000 in March and was revised down fairly significantly for the previous two months. That suggests that the economy was actually weaker and less resilient at the start of the year than the data initially indicated.