Tag Archives: jobs

Private Sector Recovers Job Numbers, not Quality

Payroll employment jumped 192,000 in March and was revised up by 37,000 for the previous two months; that puts the total number about where we expected it. Private sector employment crossed its previous peak. The quality of jobs generated, however, is not comparable in any way to those we lost. The overwhelming majority of job [...]

Heads up on the February Employment Report

On Friday, March 7, we will get our first glimpse of the February employment report. Our forecast is for 185,000 total nonfarm jobs, 195,000 private sector jobs and a 6.5% read on the unemployment rate; we’re also looking for a slight decline in the number of hours worked, as the unusually harsh winter weather remained [...]

Employment Report Sends Mixed Signals

Nonfarm payrolls rose a tepid 113,000 in January, after rising only 75,000 in December. Revisions to October and November, however, were to the upside, which means we had some cushion on employment gains as we approached the turn of the year. The composition of gains was a bit of surprise given the weather experienced in [...]

Unemployment Claims Trending Lower

Initial unemployment claims dropped 20,000 to a level of 331,000 for the week of February 1. Claims have been trending down from a recent high of 380,000 reached in the week of December 14. The latest move down is a positive sign for Friday’s jobs report, which will provide January data. We expect a stronger [...]

Upside Surprise in Single-Family Home Construction

Construction spending rose a marginal 0.1% in December and was revised down slightly for November. Much of the weakness was concentrated in the public sector. Unusually harsh winter weather likely contributed to the weakness. The upside surprise was in residential construction, particularly single-family home construction,

Winter Chill on Incomes Doesn’t Stop Spending

Disposable personal incomes edged down 0.2% in December, after being adjusted for inflation. A shortfall in farm income and a sharp moderation in wage gains in the service sector accounted for much of the weakness; the softness in the service sector was likely exacerbated by unusually harsh winter weather as the number of people unable [...]

Weather Puts Chill on Employment Report

Nonfarm payrolls rose a dismal 74,000 in December, well short of market expectations. Unusually cold winter weather contributed to the weakness. A whopping 1.7 million workers were forced to accept part-time instead of full-time work because of weather conditions alone; 273,000 people with jobs couldn’t work because of the severe weather.

Employment Gains Open Door to December Tapering

Payroll employment jumped 203,000 in November, a stronger number than markets expected, with some modest upward revisions to the last two months. More importantly, the composition of job gains was much better than it had been, with strong gains in manufacturing and construction. Leisure and hospitality, which had dominated gains in recent months, moderated considerably. [...]

Consumer Price Inflation Moderated

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% in September and decelerated on a year-on-year basis to a tepid 1.2%. Though energy prices moderated during the last three months, particularly at the pump, they drove what little increase we saw in inflation. Energy prices remain well below (-3.1%) where they were a year ago. Apparel prices [...]

Employment Soft before Government Shutdown

Payroll employment rose a dismal 148,000 in September, well below expectations. Private sector employment rose an even more anemic 126,000. The only silver lining in this gloomy report was a sharp increase in the number of teachers, who had taken it on the chin in recent years; this reflects some improvement in state and local [...]