Tag Archives: labor market

Employment Remains Buoyant: Participation Up

Payroll employment jumped a more-than-expected 257,000 in January, despite more than the usual number of heavy snow days across the nation.  (Yes, economists watch the weather too.) More importantly, benchmark revisions were released with strong upward revisions to November and December, underscoring the upward shift in economic momentum that we saw at the end of [...]

Forecast for the January Employment Data

Nonfarm payroll employment is expected to rise by 220,000 for the month of January, which would mark a slight deceleration from what we saw late last year. Private employment is expected to rise by 215,000 during the month. The unemployment rate is forecast to stay at 5.6% (although we’d welcome an increase if that meant [...]

A Statement for Everyone

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted unanimously to do nothing and signal nothing at the January meeting. The committee upgraded its assessment of the economy to reflect what was most likely a strong end to 2014. That said, members also acknowledged that wage growth, inflation and the housing market remain cooler than they would [...]

Existing Home Sales Top Five Million for 2014

Just over five million existing homes were sold in December, in line with expectations. December sales came in higher than November’s, which were revised down slightly. Comparisons for sales and prices were positive as total and single-family sales increased

Generating Jobs Not Wage Gains

Payroll employment rose by 252,000 in December after being revised up to a whopping 353,000 for the month of November. Private sector payrolls grew a smaller, but still decent, 240,000.

Payrolls Look Strong for December

Total payroll employment is expected to increase by 240,000 in December, with 235,000 gains in the private sector. Gains are expected to be broad-based; the exception may be retailers

Fed Statement Evolves but Policy Unchanged

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) erred on the side of caution by keeping the phrase “considerable time” in the statement, but not using it to describe policy moves going forward. Instead, members said they would be “patient” in raising rates. The change in verbiage is a bit of a bait-and-switch as the FOMC preps [...]

CPI Slips on Falling Oil Prices

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.3% in November, pushed down by the largest drop in prices at the pump since the height of the financial crisis in December of 2008. The CPI rose a negligible 1.3% from a year ago, once again driven down by low gas prices. Food prices rose 0.2% during the [...]

Industrial Production Rebounds

Industrial production rebounded 1.3% in the month of November and was revised up for the month of October, when weakness in the mining and utilities sector took a toll on overall gains. Upward revisions were made back to June, which helps explain some of the buildup in inventories that we saw in the third quarter. [...]

November Surge In Employment

Payroll employment jumped 321,000 in November and was revised up by 44,000 for the previous two months, bringing the last three-month average up to 278,000. Gains were broad-based, with particularly good gains in the business services sector (outside of temporary hires) where full-time, high paying jobs reside. This sector was among those hardest hit by [...]