Tag Archives: labor market

Private Sector Recovers Job Numbers, not Quality

Payroll employment jumped 192,000 in March and was revised up by 37,000 for the previous two months; that puts the total number about where we expected it. Private sector employment crossed its previous peak. The quality of jobs generated, however, is not comparable in any way to those we lost. The overwhelming majority of job [...]

Yellen Stays Course; Fed Remains Dovish

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted today to continue to taper the pace of asset purchases by $10 billion (split evenly between Treasury bonds, which are now being bought at a $30 billion per month pace, and mortgage-backed securities, which are being bought at a $25 billion per month pace.)  That vote was unanimous. [...]

Polar Vortex Fails to Derail Spring Hiring

Payroll employment rose 175,000 in February, with a little more than a third of the gains in business services, including temporary hires. The weather imprint was also evident in the composition of employment gains, with the leisure and hospitality sector adding jobs because those of us who could, migrated to ski resorts and sunny destinations,

FOMC Policy Options, Voting Tactics for 2014

The voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) changed to the following in January: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Richard W. Fisher; Narayana Kocherlakota; Sandra Pianalto; Charles I. Plosser; Jerome H. Powell; Jeremy C. Stein; Daniel K. Tarullo and Janet L. Yellen. Ben Bernanke is off now. Stanley Fischer, [...]

A Ray of Light Amidst Clouds in the Labor Market

Nonfarm payrolls edged up a tepid 113,000 in January, after rising only 75,000 in December. Revisions to both October and November, however, were substantial, which suggests we had a cushion on employment, as the winter doldrums set in. The week that the survey was taken was the mildest weather-wise for the month, which probably accounted [...]

Employment Report Sends Mixed Signals

Nonfarm payrolls rose a tepid 113,000 in January, after rising only 75,000 in December. Revisions to October and November, however, were to the upside, which means we had some cushion on employment gains as we approached the turn of the year. The composition of gains was a bit of surprise given the weather experienced in [...]

Home Sales Lose Steam in December

Existing-home sales at the end of the year were lackluster; on the national level, sales increased 1.0% in December. Regionally, sales activity picked up in the South and West, but fell in the Midwest and Northeast. Cash purchasers and individual investors still comprised a large proportion of overall sales, 32% and 21%, respectively. These numbers [...]

Weather Puts Chill on Employment Report

Nonfarm payrolls rose a dismal 74,000 in December, well short of market expectations. Unusually cold winter weather contributed to the weakness. A whopping 1.7 million workers were forced to accept part-time instead of full-time work because of weather conditions alone; 273,000 people with jobs couldn’t work because of the severe weather.

Employment Gains Open Door to December Tapering

Payroll employment jumped 203,000 in November, a stronger number than markets expected, with some modest upward revisions to the last two months. More importantly, the composition of job gains was much better than it had been, with strong gains in manufacturing and construction. Leisure and hospitality, which had dominated gains in recent months, moderated considerably. [...]

No Link between Participation Rate & Government Shutdown

I object to those suggesting that labor force participation may have dropped because of the government shutdown. First, those workers show up under “unemployed because of temporary layoff;” second, I hardly believe that furloughed workers would consider themselves OUT of the workforce altogether, which I see as a semi-permanent status — in fact it accounts [...]