Tag Archives: labor market

Fed on Path to Slow Exit from QE

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to further reduce its asset purchases by $5 billion each, which brings its current purchases of mortgage-backed securities down to $5 billion per month and its purchases of Treasury bonds down to $10 billion per month. Chair Yellen also went out of her way to reemphasize that the [...]

Employment Shortfall is a Fluke

Payroll employment rose a marginal 142,000, well below the consensus for the month of August, with downward revisions on net to the two previous months. The weakest part of the data was a shortfall in retail employment, partly due to a strike on the East Coast. Manufacturing flatlined

Employment Data Affirm Fed Strategy of Gradualism

Payroll employment rose a less-than-expected 209,000 in the month of July, with modest upward revisions for a net 15,000 additional jobs in the previous two months. This is the sixth month that we have seen job gains exceed the 200,000 threshold, but just barely. Indeed, private sector job creation fell slightly below the 200,000 level, [...]

Growth Rebounds

Real GDP growth rose a more-than-expected 4% in the second quarter, after falling a less-than-previously reported 2.1% in the first quarter. The forecast was for a 3% rebound in growth. Benchmark revisions, which include more complete data, helped to reduce the drop in the first quarter. Almost all of the “unexpected rise” in growth in [...]

Employment Explodes for July 4th Holiday

Payroll employment jumped by 288,000 in the month of June, with upward revisions to both May and April. April now shows a rise of more than 300,000 as the economy continued to snap back from the winter doldrums.

Two Steps Forward, One Back on Employment

Nonfarm payroll employment rose 217,000 in May, crossing the total level of employment hit prior to the crisis in early 2008. Government payrolls were up by 1,000, a modest but major shift from the drag we saw  government spending cuts place on the payrolls data during much of the recovery.  A gain in local government [...]

Industrial Production Disappoints

Industrial Production dropped 0.6% in April, more than the market expected despite upward revisions to the month of March. The weakness was also more broad-based. The loss in utility production was expected as snow melted and winter receded, but the drop in manufacturing activity was more than anticipated. Almost everything, from metals to automotive parts, [...]

Catch-up from Winter Doldrums not Enough

Today’s employment report showed us that the weather did indeed have an impact on hiring in previous months and now that spring is underway (all is relative), we are seeing a catch-up. The drop in the labor force and precipitous drop in labor force participation, however, underscores how far we still have to go. The [...]

Other Data Provide More Confusion than Clarity

Personal income increased at a 3.5% pace in the first quarter, marking a fairly sharp acceleration from the 2.2% of the fourth quarter. Gains were heavily concentrated in social benefits, however, which also include health care, such as expanded Medicaid benefits under the Affordable Care Act (ACA), and may be inaccurate and a distortion of [...]

Private Sector Recovers Job Numbers, not Quality

Payroll employment jumped 192,000 in March and was revised up by 37,000 for the previous two months; that puts the total number about where we expected it. Private sector employment crossed its previous peak. The quality of jobs generated, however, is not comparable in any way to those we lost. The overwhelming majority of job [...]