Tag Archives: labor market

Employment Numbers Disappoint

Payroll employment rose a tepid 142,000 in September, which surprised on the downside along with the revisions; both July and August were revised down instead of up. The downward revision to August was especially worrisome

A Primer on Employment

We are looking for non-farm payrolls to come in at 220,000 with upward revisions to August, which is a notoriously volatile month. Private payrolls are expected to increase by 215,000 with strong gains once again in health care.

Manufacturing Weak but Construction Is on the Mend

The ISM index of manufacturing activity slowed to 50.2 in September, which suggests that overall manufacturing activity is still expanding but only slightly.

FOMC Hedges Downside Risks

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) delayed liftoff today in response to concerns about growth abroad (read: China) and the likelihood that inflation will move lower before it moves higher. The central tendency of members in the meeting revealed their actual concerns (which provide the rationale for their decisions) that growth and inflation could both [...]

Slowdown in Employment is Misleading

Payroll employment rose 173,000, which is much lower than market expectations but well in line with our forecast. The August report is notoriously underreported and then later revised up. Private sector payroll employment increased by a much more modest 140,000. The slowdown was broad-based

Employment Report: August is a Quirky Month

Payroll employment is expected to rise a slightly tepid 175,000 in August after averaging more than 240,000 for the previous twelve months. Private employment is expected to increase by 170,000. We expect the unemployment rate to hold at 5.3%. The slowdown in employment growth is mostly cosmetic and reflective of the statistical agencies’ inability to [...]

Fed Holds Cards Close to Vest

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes show that the Federal Reserve continued to edge toward liftoff, but members were not there yet last month. The divide between those on the FOMC who would like to raise rates in September and those who would prefer to wait is widening.

Solid Job Gains Keep Fed on Track for September

The economy added 215,000 jobs in the month of July while the unemployment rate held steady at 5.3%. The report, in line with expectations, shows overall a solid performance of the labor market, easing some early concerns that job creation may have suffered a summer lull.

ECI Undercuts Fed Swagger

The Employment Cost Index (ECI), which is widely considered the “best” measure of overall wage gains by the Federal Reserve, disappointed in the second quarter. Fees and commissions, which buoyed first quarter gains, slowed fairly dramatically along with outlays for benefits

Employment Holds Strong but…

Payroll employment jumped 223,000 in June, a little less than expectations but still well above the level needed to absorb anemic labor market growth. Moreover, business services continued to show strong gains in full-time as opposed to just temporary hires, which reflects an improving market for new college graduates. Health care also saw strong gains, [...]