Tag Archives: labor market

Moderate Rebound in Employment

Payroll employment rebounded by 223,000 in April after being revised down for the month of March. The snapback was in places one would expect, such as construction and teachers at the state and local levels.

Employment Expected to Pick Up

We expect payroll employment to rise by 220,000 in April after adding a negligible 120,000 in March. Private payrolls are forecast to account for 215,000 of those gains. Much, of course, will depend upon revisions, which we are hoping to be to the upside for March.

Consumers Catch Up on Spending

Personal consumption expenditures rose 0.4% in March after being revised up slightly for the previous month. The increase was 0.2% faster than the pace of inflation. Personal disposable income growth actually contracted slightly

Disappointing March Employment Data

Payroll employment rose a disappointing 126,000 in March and was revised down fairly significantly for the previous two months. That suggests that the economy was actually weaker and less resilient at the start of the year than the data initially indicated.

A Primer on March Employment Data

We expect to see payroll employment rise by 235,000 in March, a bit of a moderation compared to the pace we saw at the start of the year. Hiring of teachers and other public sector workers is expected to add to those gains, but not dramatically. The private sector is expected to account for 228,000 [...]

Momentum Trumps Lousy Weather

Payroll employment increased by 295,000 in February; that was better than expected given the weather disruptions we experienced across the country, which were worse in February than January. Even after a downward revision to the January data, the quality and quantity of jobs was solid in February. The largest gains in payroll employment occurred in [...]

A Primer for February Employment

We expect payroll employment to rise by 210,000 jobs in February, less than we initially expected because unusually harsh winter weather and work stoppages at West Coast ports disrupted everything from construction to manufacturing activity.

Employment Remains Buoyant: Participation Up

Payroll employment jumped a more-than-expected 257,000 in January, despite more than the usual number of heavy snow days across the nation.  (Yes, economists watch the weather too.) More importantly, benchmark revisions were released with strong upward revisions to November and December, underscoring the upward shift in economic momentum that we saw at the end of [...]

Forecast for the January Employment Data

Nonfarm payroll employment is expected to rise by 220,000 for the month of January, which would mark a slight deceleration from what we saw late last year. Private employment is expected to rise by 215,000 during the month. The unemployment rate is forecast to stay at 5.6% (although we’d welcome an increase if that meant [...]

A Statement for Everyone

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted unanimously to do nothing and signal nothing at the January meeting. The committee upgraded its assessment of the economy to reflect what was most likely a strong end to 2014. That said, members also acknowledged that wage growth, inflation and the housing market remain cooler than they would [...]