Tag Archives: labor market

Disappointing March Employment Data

Payroll employment rose a disappointing 126,000 in March and was revised down fairly significantly for the previous two months. That suggests that the economy was actually weaker and less resilient at the start of the year than the data initially indicated.

A Primer on March Employment Data

We expect to see payroll employment rise by 235,000 in March, a bit of a moderation compared to the pace we saw at the start of the year. Hiring of teachers and other public sector workers is expected to add to those gains, but not dramatically. The private sector is expected to account for 228,000 [...]

Momentum Trumps Lousy Weather

Payroll employment increased by 295,000 in February; that was better than expected given the weather disruptions we experienced across the country, which were worse in February than January. Even after a downward revision to the January data, the quality and quantity of jobs was solid in February. The largest gains in payroll employment occurred in [...]

A Primer for February Employment

We expect payroll employment to rise by 210,000 jobs in February, less than we initially expected because unusually harsh winter weather and work stoppages at West Coast ports disrupted everything from construction to manufacturing activity.

Employment Remains Buoyant: Participation Up

Payroll employment jumped a more-than-expected 257,000 in January, despite more than the usual number of heavy snow days across the nation.  (Yes, economists watch the weather too.) More importantly, benchmark revisions were released with strong upward revisions to November and December, underscoring the upward shift in economic momentum that we saw at the end of [...]

Forecast for the January Employment Data

Nonfarm payroll employment is expected to rise by 220,000 for the month of January, which would mark a slight deceleration from what we saw late last year. Private employment is expected to rise by 215,000 during the month. The unemployment rate is forecast to stay at 5.6% (although we’d welcome an increase if that meant [...]

A Statement for Everyone

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted unanimously to do nothing and signal nothing at the January meeting. The committee upgraded its assessment of the economy to reflect what was most likely a strong end to 2014. That said, members also acknowledged that wage growth, inflation and the housing market remain cooler than they would [...]

Existing Home Sales Top Five Million for 2014

Just over five million existing homes were sold in December, in line with expectations. December sales came in higher than November’s, which were revised down slightly. Comparisons for sales and prices were positive as total and single-family sales increased

Generating Jobs Not Wage Gains

Payroll employment rose by 252,000 in December after being revised up to a whopping 353,000 for the month of November. Private sector payrolls grew a smaller, but still decent, 240,000.

Payrolls Look Strong for December

Total payroll employment is expected to increase by 240,000 in December, with 235,000 gains in the private sector. Gains are expected to be broad-based; the exception may be retailers