Tag Archives: manufacturing

Surge in Aircraft Mask Underlying Weakness in Orders

Durable goods orders surged more than 20% in July to the highest level since 1992. Much of that rise, however, was due to a surge in new aircraft orders for Boeing; those have long lag times (up to five years to completion) and can be cancelled if economic conditions change. The remainder of the increases [...]

Autos Drive Gains in IP

Industrial production rose 0.4% in July, supported by outsize gains in vehicle production.  Many plants were running in July when retooling typically occurs to either catch up on losses from interruptions during the winter months or ramp up for an expanded number of new model introductions. Unusually harsh winter weather also accelerated the pace at [...]

Durable Goods Orders Rebound Partway

Durable goods orders jumped 0.7% in June on strong gains in machinery and transportation equipment. The increase in transportation equipment was heavily concentrated in defense aircraft and parts, which has long lag times, while orders in the vehicle sector actually fell. The more important capital goods orders excluding defense and aircraft, which track actual business [...]

Tepid Production and Mortgage Figures Reinforce Gradualism

Industrial production rose 0.2% in June and was revised down slightly for the month prior. The bulk of the weakness occurred in consumer goods, which had been extremely strong earlier in the quarter. Hopefully, this weakness is transitory as the auto sector and big-ticket consumer goods are expected to provide a tailwind for the economy [...]

Employment Explodes for July 4th Holiday

Payroll employment jumped by 288,000 in the month of June, with upward revisions to both May and April. April now shows a rise of more than 300,000 as the economy continued to snap back from the winter doldrums.

Manufacturing still a Bright Spot

Industrial production rebounded 0.6% in May, after slipping a smaller-than-initially reported 0.3% in April. Gains were driven by a pickup in the production of vehicles and other durables, including business equipment. That supports our view that spending on big ticket items such as vehicles, furniture, appliances and investment in new equipment will drive growth as [...]

GDP Drop Expected to Reverse in Q2

Real GDP was revised down to show a 1% decline in the first quarter. Most of that drop was due to a larger-than-expected liquidation in inventories, which is good in that it leaves more room for a rebound in the second quarter. Manufacturing activity has already picked up on the heels of better weather.

Defense Aircraft Drive Durable Goods

Durable goods orders rose 0.8% in April after being revised up in March. The only downside is that the bulk of those gains were concentrated in the highly volatile aircraft sector, which also has a long lead time for orders.  Moreover, those Increases were driven by defense,

Industrial Production Disappoints

Industrial Production dropped 0.6% in April, more than the market expected despite upward revisions to the month of March. The weakness was also more broad-based. The loss in utility production was expected as snow melted and winter receded, but the drop in manufacturing activity was more than anticipated. Almost everything, from metals to automotive parts, [...]

Other Data Provide More Confusion than Clarity

Personal income increased at a 3.5% pace in the first quarter, marking a fairly sharp acceleration from the 2.2% of the fourth quarter. Gains were heavily concentrated in social benefits, however, which also include health care, such as expanded Medicaid benefits under the Affordable Care Act (ACA), and may be inaccurate and a distortion of [...]