Tag Archives: manufacturing

Industrial Production is Back

Industrial production jumped 0.7% in March, after being revised up sharply for the month of February. Upward revisions were substantial and attributed to much stronger gains in big-ticket durable goods (including business equipment) and mining. Moreover, gains in March were broad-based in both consumer and business categories

U.S. Trade Deteriorates

The trade deficit widened more than expected in February, as imports rose and exports fell. Imports of vehicles were particularly strong; that could be a problem for domestic vehicle producers going forward even as sales come back, which they did strongly in March. Japanese and Korean producers, in particular, now have unusually large pricing advantages [...]

Industrial Production: Big Picture after Small Revisions

The Federal Reserve’s annual revisions for the index of industrial production and related measures of capacity and capacity utilization are available now. These revisions are usually based on a more accurate reassessment of survey data, as well as refinements in methodology and data collection. Changes are usually small but not inconsequential; oftentimes, small revisions have [...]

Durable Goods Post Hollow Gains

Durable goods orders rose a larger-than-expected 2.2% in February. Much of the increase was concentrated in the volatile, lagged orders of aircraft and parts. Orders for motor vehicles and parts were also up after two months of declines, reflecting a bit of a comeback after unusually harsh winter weather took a toll on sales in [...]

GDP Revisions: Some Bright Spots

Real GDP was revised down to a 2.4% annual rate from an initial estimate of 3.2% in the fourth quarter. Consumer spending showed less momentum than initially reported, while underlying inflation ran a little hotter than initially reported. Exports were also weaker; inventory accumulation was not as large as initially reported (which at least means [...]

Durable Goods Rise Ex-Transportation

Durable goods orders fell 1% in January from December, but all of that weakness was concentrated in the volatile transportation sector. Durable goods orders ex-transportation rose 1.1% in January after being revised down in December. Moreover, most of the drop in transportation orders was concentrated in aircraft orders which have very long lead times. Vehicle [...]

Weather Takes a Toll on Production

Industrial production fell 0.3% in January, with losses in manufacturing and mining activity more than offsetting a surge in utilities. Subzero temperatures and unusually cold weather in what are typically more mild climates prompted many people to turn up their thermostats and hibernate in their homes across the country. At the same time, harsh weather [...]

2013 Growth Held Back by Fiscal Policy

Real GDP growth came in at 3.2% in the fourth quarter of 2013, a little less than we expected.  One reason was that spending by the federal government plummeted further in response to the government shutdown and budget battles; those losses will be much more muted as we move forward, now that we have an [...]

Durable Goods Orders Plummet

Durable goods orders dropped a startling 4.3%, double the worst estimates for the month; orders were also revised down for the month of November. Losses were widespread, with everything from vehicles, aircraft, metals, computers and communications equipment posting significant declines. Much of that was in reaction to inventory building we saw during the second half [...]

Industrial Production Growth Slowed In December

Industrial production rose 0.3% in December, in line with expectations, and capped off the strongest quarterly pace of gains (6.8% on an annualized basis) since the second quarter of 2010. Moreover, increases were broad-based in manufacturing, mining, nonindustrial supplies and construction materials.