Tag Archives: manufacturing

A Primer on Employment

We are looking for non-farm payrolls to come in at 220,000 with upward revisions to August, which is a notoriously volatile month. Private payrolls are expected to increase by 215,000 with strong gains once again in health care.

Manufacturing Weak but Construction Is on the Mend

The ISM index of manufacturing activity slowed to 50.2 in September, which suggests that overall manufacturing activity is still expanding but only slightly.

Orders Moderate for Durable Goods

Durable goods orders fell 2% in August, well in line with expectations after two months of strong gains. Both aircraft and vehicle orders accounted for the decline. Transportation equipment had been a driver of gains earlier this summer. Core capital goods orders (excluding aircraft and defense) also retreated a bit after two robust months. Core [...]

Industrial Production Drops

Industrial production fell a larger-than-expected 0.4% in August after a strong upward revision to July. The volatility in the number was caused by changes in vehicle production, which have proven difficult to capture on a seasonally adjusted basis. Plants that were previously shuttered during July were up and running; that is borrowing from the usual [...]

Growth in 2Q Revised Much Higher

The economy expanded at a revised 3.7% pace in the second quarter, almost 1.5% stronger than initial estimates for the period. The changes were driven by a strong upward revision to business investment. Commercial construction activity was particularly strong, while the contraction in equipment spending is now significantly less than initially reported.

Durable Goods Surprise to the Upside

Durable goods orders surged a more-than-expected 2% in July and were revised up to show a whopping 4.1% gain in June. More importantly, July’s gains occurred outside of the highly volatile aircraft sector; we saw increases in everything from machinery to vehicles and communications equipment. The increase in machinery is encouraging as it appears to [...]

Fed Holds Cards Close to Vest

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes show that the Federal Reserve continued to edge toward liftoff, but members were not there yet last month. The divide between those on the FOMC who would like to raise rates in September and those who would prefer to wait is widening.

Construction Data Improves with Detail

Construction spending rose an almost imperceptible 0.1% in June, with a drop in the private sector offsetting ongoing gains in the public sector. Revisions to previous months were to the upside, however, suggesting that the improving trend in construction that we saw with last month’s release is still intact.

Revisions Smooth Path of Growth

The overall economy expanded at a 2.3% pace in the second quarter after rising at an upwardly revised 0.6% pace in the first quarter. Benchmark revisions, which incorporate new data and attempt to deal with the first quarter seasonal problems, helped to smooth the path of growth in recent years.

Aircraft Orders Buoy Durable Goods

Durable goods orders rose 3.4% in June after contracting a more-than-previously-reported 2.1% in May. A 66% surge in the highly volatile aircraft sector accounted for much of the gain.