Tag Archives: retail sales

Santa Wore Deep Pockets in November

Retail sales surged 0.7% in November and were revised up for the month of October, which has become an important indicator for the holiday shopping season.

A Primer on November Employment

We expect payroll employment to rise by 205,000 in November, slightly less than the 222,000 average monthly gain for the 12 months leading up to October. Private payroll employment is expected to drop below the 200,000 threshold to 195,000 for the month.

Pleasant Upside Surprise for Third Quarter GDP

Real GDP in the third quarter was revised up to 3.9% from an initial estimate of 3.5%, a welcome upward surprise in growth. Moreover, most of the rise was due to positive factors, such as stronger-than-initially-estimated consumer spending and business investment. Exports were revised down, reflecting weakness abroad

Consumers Deliver for Halloween

Retail sales rose 0.3% in October, slightly more than expected. U.S. consumers are spending some of the increased income that they are gaining from recent job growth, increased working hours and lower prices at the pump. Indeed, core retail sales, which exclude vehicle and gasoline sales, jumped 0.6% during the month with broad-based gains in [...]

Falling Oil Pushes Down Import Prices

Imports fell 1.3%, due mostly due to a sharp downdraft in energy prices. Energy prices alone fell 6.9% during the month. More worrisome is that import prices excluding oil were also down slightly and have been falling for several months. That reflects the disinflationary effect that a strong dollar is beginning to have on import [...]

Retail Sales Disappoint

Total retail sales slipped 0.3% in September after surging in August. A drop in vehicle sales from a post-recession high was one reason for the weakness. Core retail sales, which exclude the volatile vehicle and gasoline components, also dipped slightly during the month. That was despite a sharp drop in prices at the pump and [...]

Strong Retail Sales Help Dispel Employment Worries

Retail sales jumped 0.6% in August, with strong gains in vehicles, housing-related furniture, appliances and electronics. More importantly, those gains were on top of upward revisions to the month of July which, when combined with improving consumer attitudes about prospects for employment, affirm our view that the initial disappointing employment report for the month of [...]

Retail Sales Flatline in July

Retail sales disappointed again in July, flatlining after rising only 0.2% in June. Declines were in everything from big-ticket durable goods such as vehicles (some of that could be because of the shift from more expensive trucks into less expensive cars), furniture and appliances to the big-box retailers. Even the large discount chains were hit. [...]

Retail Sales Better then Headline Suggests

Retail sales rose a tepid 0.2% in June, but were revised up for the month of May. That is the second month in a row that sales were revised up; it means we are behind the curve on a much-needed catch-up in consumer spending following the winter doldrums. Vehicle sales tumbled,

Retail Sales Buoyed by Revisions

Retail sales rose 0.3% in May, about half of what the market expected. The data for April, however, continued a trend we have seen in recent months; it was revised up. That is good news in that we tend to see the government as needing to catch up on earlier shortfalls in measuring economic activity [...]