Tag Archives: sequestration
Employment Report Confirms Moderation in Growth
Payroll employment in the month of May rose by 175,000, which was more than most expected. Revisions to both March and April, however, showed a downward adjustment of 12,000. In general, employment growth has moderated from a 207,000 + per month pace in the October to March period, to a 158,000 pace in the second [...]
Consumer Spending Headline Overstates Weakness
Personal consumption expenditures declined 0.2% in April, after being revised down slightly for March. Inflation abated, however, which means that consumer spending squeaked out a small, 0.1% increase after adjusting for price changes. Falling prices at the pump (everywhere but in Chicago, where refinery problems raised prices) pushed inflation down during the month. We also [...]
Little News in GDP Revision for Q1
Real GDP for the first quarter was revised down slightly on larger declines in government spending. Those cuts in government will persist into the second and third quarters. It looks like sequestration (automatic spending cuts) could easily stay put in 2014.
Industrial Production Falls with Decline in Heating Demand
Industrial production fell 0.5% in April after increasing 0.3% in March. Most of the weakness showed up in a 3.7% monthly drop in utilities. Heat, in particular, didn’t need to be turned on as much, once spring arrived a month late. That said, losses were widespread with the only notable gains in mining. Production of [...]
Employment Surprise to the Upside; Unemployment Rate at 5-Year Low
Payroll employment rose by 165,000 in April, a slight upside surprise. More importantly, data for February and March were revised up significantly, providing some reassurance that the economy will be resilient if not robust in the second quarter.
ADP Jobs Numbers Disappoint
The ADP report on payroll employment rose a disappointing 119,000 in April while the total for the month of March was revised down. Small firm employment was much weaker than in the past, likely in response to persistently bad weather in April. Many lawn care companies complain that they haven’t been able to work a [...]
Durable Goods Disappoint on Aircraft Orders
Durable goods orders fell 5.7% in March, the second decline in a row, though the increase in February was revised somewhat smaller than initially reported. The bulk of the drop occurred in nondefense aircraft and parts, which plummeted 48.2%. Declines were also posted in metals, machinery and electrical equipment. Orders for vehicles continued to rise [...]
Housing Starts Rise in February; Permits Jump
Housing starts rose to 917,000 in February, slightly above the 910,000 pace of January. Single family housing starts rose to a 618,000 unit pace, up slightly from the 615,000 pace of January. Multi-family starts averaged a 285,000 unit pace, which is up slightly from January, but off significantly from the robust 300,000 plus pace we [...]
Industrial Production Higher on Utilities and Durables
The index of industrial production jumped 0.7% in February as more seasonal weather returned, prompting many consumers to raise thermostats and businesses to increase production of everything from vehicles to appliances, electronics, furniture and carpeting. Moreover, manufacturing gains for the previous two months were revised up. The pickup in production in consumer durables reflects several [...]
Consumers Show Resilience in February
Consumer Shows Resilience in February Retail sales rose 1.1% in February, after being revised up in January. This gives credence to some of the recent strength in the broader stock indices and the importance to most households of rising housing prices. The increases in home prices have boosted household wealth and allowed consumers to spend [...]
Bloomberg asks Diane Swonk to explain Fed concern over unemployment
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