Tag Archives: trade
First Quarter Rebound Disappoints
The economy expanded at a 2.5% pace in the first quarter, more than half of one percent below expectations. Stronger-than-expected increases in consumer spending, the housing market and a rebuilding of inventories were tempered by tepid business investment and a sharp decline in government spending. The trade deficit also widened, as imports outpaced the gain [...]
Durable Goods Jump on Aircraft Orders
Durable goods orders jumped 5.7% in February from the month earlier, helped by a rebound in orders at Boeing. Aircraft orders alone were up a whopping 95.3% in February after plummeting in January. Vehicle orders also increased during the month, which bodes well for the auto industry. There is also some linkage between vehicle orders [...]
Trade Deficit Widens on Drop in Exports
The trade deficit widened to $44.4 billion in January, up from $38.1 billion in December. Exports of industrial supplies and materials were particularly weak; exports of capital goods, foods and vehicles continued to rise. Imports increased marginally across the board. The sharp narrowing of the trade deficit in December was more of an anomaly than [...]
A Good Omen for Business Investment
Durable goods orders dropped at 5.2% in January. All of that decline, however, may be attributed to a drop in the volatile transportation sector, which was dominated by a large fall in aircraft orders. Orders excluding transportation rose 1.9%, the fastest pace in a year. Machinery orders surged at a double-digit pace during the month, [...]
Higher Fuel Prices Boost Import/Export Prices
Import prices jumped 0.6% in January after dropping sharply during the last two months of 2012. A large jump in fuel prices accounted for much of that gain. Non-fuel import prices edged up a much-more-modest 0.2% after declining during the previous two months. Vehicle prices were up, as promotions to boost end-of-year sales were rolled [...]
Trade Data Will Push Q4 into the Black
The U.S. trade deficit narrowed dramatically to $38.5 billion in December from $48.6 billion in November. The improvement was on both sides of the ledger, with exports picking up and imports slowing rapidly. Most of the increase in exports was in industrial supplies and materials including petroleum. Capital equipment and vehicles were still weak. This [...]
Trade Deficit Widens on Vehicle & Parts Imports
The U.S. trade deficit widened to a much-larger-than-expected $48.7 billion in November, as Superstorm Sandy victims replaced their damaged vehicles at a record pace. We are also seeing some high-end German vehicle producers stock their lots with more test-drive vehicles to unload inventories building in Europe. Exports also increased, but at a much slower pace. [...]
Headline GDP not as “Good” as It Looks
Real GDP was revised up to 2.7% in the third quarter from an initial estimate of 2.0%. Much of the increase can be attributed to upward revisions in inventories, which will need to be drained later in the year, and stronger-than-initially reported export growth. Imports were weaker, meaning a larger contribution to GDP growth from [...]
Durable Goods Orders Tread Water
Durable goods orders increased by a negligible amount in October, as a rise in defense orders offset weakness in transportation. Core capital goods orders (ex-defense and aircraft), which more closely track business investment, rose a slightly stronger 1.7%. Indeed, the only sector to post major gains was communications equipment; this likely reflected increased purchases of [...]
Trade Deficit Narrows on Better Exports
The trade deficit narrowed to $41.5 billion in September, down from $43.8b in August, on a rebound in exports. Gains were fairly broad-based with the exception of vehicle exports, which continued to decline. Agricultural exports increased; at least a portion of those gains, however, was probably due to the higher prices resulting from last summer’s [...]
Bloomberg asks Diane Swonk to explain Fed concern over unemployment
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