Tag Archives: trade

Growth in 2Q Revised Much Higher

The economy expanded at a revised 3.7% pace in the second quarter, almost 1.5% stronger than initial estimates for the period. The changes were driven by a strong upward revision to business investment. Commercial construction activity was particularly strong, while the contraction in equipment spending is now significantly less than initially reported.

Yuan Devaluation: Nod to Markets or Currency Manipulation?

Last week the Chinese central bank, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), announced a change in its exchange rate-setting mechanism that resulted in a de facto devaluation of the yuan, which dropped by more than 4% by the end of the week. The decision was widely interpreted as a deliberate attempt to weaken the currency, [...]

Trade Deficit Narrows

The trade deficit narrowed more than expected in April to a negative $40.9 billion from a negative $50.6 billion in March (after some revisions). Both exports and imports contributed to the more favorable outcome.

GDP Slips into the Red

Real GDP fell by 0.7% in the first quarter, almost one percent lower than initial estimates. The bulk of the slowdown may be attributed to a smaller-than-initially-reported buildup in inventories, slower consumer spending and stronger imports. The only upside revision was to residential investment, which reflects the glimmer of light we have seen in housing [...]

Q1 GDP to Show Hit from Trade Deficit

The trade deficit widened dramatically in March as containers that had been stockpiled during labor disputes at West Coast ports were finally unloaded and made room for new shipments. Indeed, almost all of the increase in imports came from Asia,

Trade Improves for the Wrong Reasons

The trade deficit narrowed much more than expected in the month of February as imports plummeted more rapidly than exports. Much of that movement can be attributed to labor disagreements between management and longshore workers. Work stoppages at West Coast ports, where a large share of imports are unloaded and shipped to end users (largely [...]

Trade Deficit Balloons

The U.S. trade deficit unexpectedly widened to $46.6 billion in December from $39.8 billion in November. The data for November were revised to show a slightly larger deficit than was initially reported. Exports fell, while imports picked up a bit. Much of that shift was concentrated in trade with Canada and Mexico,

Falling Oil Prices Reduce Trade Deficit

The trade deficit narrowed more than expected again in November, with imports dropping more than exports. A fall in oil imports, due to the sharp drop in energy prices we have seen in recent months, was the primary reason for weakening imports. Exports were hurt by a drop in aircraft shipments,

Falling Oil Pushes Down Import Prices

Imports fell 1.3%, due mostly due to a sharp downdraft in energy prices. Energy prices alone fell 6.9% during the month. More worrisome is that import prices excluding oil were also down slightly and have been falling for several months. That reflects the disinflationary effect that a strong dollar is beginning to have on import [...]

Trade Deficit Widens

The trade deficit widened from $40 billion in August to $43 billion in September. Imports were essentially unchanged while exports declined slightly. Exports of industrial materials and supplies, which include telecommunications equipment and capital goods, were particularly weak.