Diane Swonk, Chief Economist
Dec. 4, 2009 – 8:00 a.m. CT
Near-Zero Drop in Jobs, Tipping Point Close
The pace of layoffs has dropped to almost zero – with jobs down by just 11,000 – in November. The workweek increased and some sectors started to add jobs for temporary workers and hire business services. Moreover, revisions to recent months were to the downside, suggesting that we really are approaching a tipping point.
As a caution, easy seasonals – the adjustment of the data at year-end that makes it easier to post job gains – contributed to the smaller-than-expected loss, but nonetheless, the data is encouraging.
Separately, unemployment dropped to 10% from 10.2%, and the shadow unemployment rate – which includes discouraged workers – also dropped, giving us reason to be hopeful, if not jubilant.
The Bottom Line: Today's data gives us hope that we will actually start to generate jobs and fuel a more self-sustaining recovery. The jury is still out, however, on how rapid job creation will be. I am assuming only modest job gains at the start of 2010, but would gladly eat crow if that forecast is wrong and the recovery in employment is more robust.
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