Jan. 14, 2010 – 8:00 a.m.

Still Holding Our Breath on Jobs...

Unemployment claims edged up slightly during the first week of the year to 444,000. Some of that increase can be attributed to the "noise" created by poor seasonal adjustments. The data is nonetheless disappointing, as it suggests we will have to rely more on hiring by the government for the 2010 census than on the private sector – at least in the first quarter.

Separately, retail sales contracted by 0.3% in December, which surprised many on the downside. Upward revisions to November, however, confirm that consumer spending continued to rise in the fourth quarter, as consumers traded dining out and expensive vacations for Christmas gifts.

On net, the recovery continues to move forward, albeit slower than we would like.

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