Chipping Away at the American Dream

CHICAGO, April 9, 2008 —"Homes are unique in the spectrum of assets that we own. They embody our dreams, our sorrows, and our achievements. They are both a nest for our children to flourish and a nest-egg for our futures. They are the largest asset that most people will ever own and, as a result, enable us to finance everything from cars to college degrees," says Diane Swonk, chief economist of Mesirow Financial, in her annual housing market edition of Themes on the Economy and her annual housing market podcast.

"This is why the downturn in housing is so tragic, as it not only represents a hit to the economy, but it represents a hit to the American psyche. It is the straw that breaks the back of working class households who feel that they have already given more than their fair share in an economy that penalizes manual labor relative to educational attainment," notes Swonk.

In her April newsletter, Swonk takes a closer look at the outlook for housing, how close we are to a bottom, and what housing shifts mean for the overall economy.

• Sales. "New and existing homes sales are forecast to fall another 15% in 2008, about the same as 2007. The subprime and Alt-A mortgage market have all but disappeared, which has taken many speculative and low-income buyers out of the market entirely."
• Starts. "Housing starts are expected to drop a much more dramatic 32% in 2008, after declining almost 30% in 2007. Much of that correction has already occurred, as starts dropped at a 20.5% annualized rate between the fourth quarter of 2007 and first two months of the first quarter in 2008."
• Depreciation. "Home prices, as measured by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO), are forecast to drop 5% in 2008, after rising an average 1.9% in 2007. Prices were already starting to decline on a year-over-year basis by the end of 2007."
• Residential Investment. "So far, the direct cost associated with the housing bust-the decline in residential investment and housing-related spending-have had the largest impact on growth. The decline in residential investment shaved more than one percent from growth in 2007 alone."
• Foreclosures. "An increase in foreclosures is a particular problem for some of the most overbuilt and economically suppressed markets. Initially, most of the defaults were concentrated in subprime and Alt-A mortgages, with a sharp increase in early defaults-mortgages that were going bad within the first six months of origination. The foreclosure problem, however, is now spreading."
• Economic Growth. "Everything from a loss in housing market wealth (via price declines) to the collateral damage created by the credit market crisis is suppressing overall economic growth. A seizure in lending in the commercial end of the construction market is particularly worrisome, as increases in commercial construction were the primary offset to losses on the residential side in 2007."

"On net, stimulus provided by changes in fiscal and monetary policy will buy some time for the housing wounds to heal. They will also limit the collateral damages associated with the financial crisis triggered by the housing market bust. The bottom in housing is still ahead of us, however, and the residual pain of weak to falling home prices is likely to haunt us for some time to come," concludes Swonk.

The April issue of Themes on the Economy as well as archived issues can be found at www.mesirowfinancial.com.

Mesirow Financial is a diversified financial services firm headquartered in Chicago. Founded in 1937, it is an independent, employee-owned firm with $31.4 billion in assets under management and more than 1,100 employees in 30 locations across the country and in London. With expertise in Investment Management, Investment Services, Insurance Services, Investment Banking, Consulting and Real Estate, Mesirow Financial strives to meet the financial needs of institutions, public sector entities, corporations and individuals and was named one of Chicago's Best Places to Work by Crain's Chicago Business in 2008. For the fiscal year ended March 31, 2007, the firm posted $451 million in revenue, with more than $238 million in capital. For more information about Mesirow Financial, visit its Web site at www.mesirowfinancial.com.

For more information, contact: Diane Swonk, Mesirow Financial, 312-595-7122, or Olga Camargo, Mesirow Financial, 312-595-7128.

 

The Mesirow Financial name and logo are registered service marks of Mesirow Financial Holdings, Inc., © 2007, Mesirow Financial Holdings, Inc. All rights reserved. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. It should not be assumed that any recommendations incorporated herein will be profitable or will equal past performance. Nothing contained herein constitutes an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy an interest in any Mesirow Financial investment vehicle(s).

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